Written by Arjun Balaraman

Premier League By the Numbers – Edition 1

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Who was the most valuable player from France’s World Cup winning side this past summer in Russia? Was it Kylian Mbappé and his devastating pace? Was it Raphael Varane with his masterful performances in the back? N’Golo Kanté as he dominated the midfield? It’s tough to determine who exactly the best player was because most times in soccer it is difficult to compare players across positions.

 

Perhaps the most common debate that is constantly going on in the world of professional soccer is the Messi vs. Ronaldo battle. Diehard supporters of each player take to the comments section on Twitter and Instagram to argue the superiority of their favorite player, and often times, Messi fans like to bring up the fact that his goal scoring stats are even more impressive because of the fact that he has operated in the number 10 position for much of the past couple years.

 

To truly compare Messi & Ronaldo, or France’s best world cup player, we need to develop a two-step approach. It is so hard to directly compare players who play different positions that first we need to just compare them to others playing in the same position. Then, that ranking needs to be standardized within each position, using statistical methods and, the standardized ranking can then be used to compare players across positions. What we really need to find out is how much better is Messi than the other no. 10’s, and how much better is Ronaldo than other strikers.

 

Most recent efforts to rank players have restricted themselves to the first step: ranking within positions. ESPN recently published their annual top 100 list, where they give their opinion on the top players in the game today. However, even this list, which is supposed to be a Top 100, is broken down positionally and none of the players from different positions are compared with one another, there are just ten top 10’s for all their different positional groupings. The same goes for Bleacher Report, who, every week, publish their own EPL Top 100, where they also, by position, rank the top players in the English Premier League. But whenever I find myself reading through these rankings, I always wonder about players between the groupings. ESPN had Sadio Mané ranked as the world’s best Wide Forward, and Eden Hazard as the fourth best Forward, yet I don’t think many would argue the fact that Hazard is a far superior player to the former Southampton man even though he was technically rated lower in his category. In fact, I would be surprised if Mané would even be in the Top 10 in the ‘Forward’ category. My methodology allows for the comparison of players across all positions, something I found to be missing in statistical analysis in soccer.

 

And thus, welcome, to Premier League By the Numbers, a comprehensive rating system that includes data for over 220 outfield players in the English Premier League. This system takes into account all players who have played at least 45% of their teams’ minutes in the league so far this season. All data included is per 90-minute data from Whoscored.com. Using only the data will allow me to overcome any bias and also find some players whose true value isn’t often apparent.

 

In my analysis, I wanted to minimize the number of variables in the rating system by grouping the players into positional groupings. It is much easier to compare Robert Lewandowski and Edinson Cavani, two clear no. 9 central strikers, than it is to compare one of them with, say, Paul Pogba. Pogba’s game, and role, is so different that it would be very hard to determine which one of them is performing better because there is less of a context to the data. Additionally, different statistics are important for different positions. For example, it doesn’t really matter how many clearances a striker or winger makes, but it certainly does matter how many a central defender makes. Using statistical methods, we then create a standardized rating (from 0 to 100) for each player in their positional group which we can then use to compare all players and positions in the league. Feel free to email me at arjun.balaraman@tufts.edu if you have any questions about the ranking system.

 

The Rating system is meant to show the value of each player to their team based on how they perform and assumes that all positions are weighted equally when considering the Top 25. While one may argue, for example, that the level of left backs in the league is significantly lower than the level of strikers and that Lucas Digne is only rated so highly in the Top 25 rankings because there aren’t enough good fullbacks, all that does is make Digne more valuable because he is able to do what others in his position can’t. Our system allows us to give the proper attention and respect to those who play less glamorous positions.

 

There is a league-wide Top 25, alongside positional rankings as well, with some short commentary on each section.

TOP 25

It’s no real surprise to see so many Liverpool and Manchester City players atop the rankings here as the two teams seem to be on their way to a delightful title race. David Silva tops the lot, and his 2.9 key passes per 90 minutes (over three times the positional average of 0.925 for a central midfielder) has a lot to do with that. Jose Holebas features in the Top 5, his attacking work has received much praise this season, but he has also been solid on the defensive side for a Watford team that finds itself firmly in the race for ‘Best of the Rest’ outside the top 6. Further down the list, Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba have seen their production in terms of goals, assists, key passes, and chances created increase dramatically under new manager Ole Gunnar Solksjaer, leading to their presence in the Top 25.

  1. David Silva – 99.92
  2. Eden Hazard – 99.76
  3. Virgil van Dijk – 99.69
  4. Lucas Digne – 99.61
  5. Jose Holebas – 99.38
  6. Leroy Sané – 99.07
  7. Bernardo Silva – 98.90
  8. Mohammed Salah – 98.80
  9. James Milner – 97.98
  10. Willy Boly – 97.71
  11. Sergio Aguero – 97.69
  12. Raheem Sterling – 96.82
  13. Kieran Trippier – 96.61
  14. Marcus Rashford – 96.04
  15. Matt Doherty – 95.42
  16. Fernandinho – 94.97
  17. Ryan Fraser – 93.10
  18. Etienne Capoue – 91.48
  19. Aaron Wan-Bissaka – 91.29
  20. Willian – 90.40
  21. Paul Pogba – 89.55
  22. John Stones – 89.45
  23. Lucas Torreira – 89.09
  24. Harry Kane – 88.39
  25. Christian Eriksen – 86.99

 

Fullbacks

Lucas Digne has been superb recently for Everton, with some delightful free kicks and some solid defensive work to go along with it. Matt Doherty has also been excellent for Wolves all season, thriving in the advanced wing-back role he’s been playing in. Credit to Aaron Wan-Bissaka, the teenager has been a revelation for Palace, and should have the right-back spot locked down for as long as he wants. Further down, it was a surprise to see Andy Robertson come in so low, but the Liverpool man’s numbers just weren’t there in many key areas.

  1. Lucas Digne
  2. José Holebas
  3. Kieran Trippier
  4. Matt Doherty
  5. Aaron Wan-Bissaka
  6. Ashley Young
  7. Trent Alexander-Arnold
  8. Ricardo Pereira
  9. Bernardo
  10. Cedric Soares
  11. Cesar Azpilicueta
  12. Andy Robertson
  13. Ryan Bertrand
  14. Marcos Alonso
  15. Simon Francis

Center Backs

Virgil van Dijk was the clear winner here; the Liverpool man amazingly has not been dribbled past yet even once this season. Jamaal Lascelles’ 7.1 clearances per 90 minutes, coupled with some other strong stats for tackles made and blocks, brought him up to 7th, while his center back partner Federico Fernandez is in 10th, perhaps a credit to Rafa Benitez’s strong defensive, tactical work.

  1. Virgil van Dijk
  2. Willy Boly
  3. John Stones
  4. Aymeric Laporte
  5. David Luiz
  6. Shane Duffy
  7. Jamaal Lascelles
  8. Harry Maguire
  9. Michael Keane
  10. Federico Fernandez
  11. Joe Gomez
  12. Steve Cook
  13. Antonio Rudiger
  14. Toby Aldeweireld
  15. Victor Lindelof

Central/Defensive Midfielders

With Kevin de Bruyne out for much of the season, the Silva’s (Bernardo and David) have run the midfield for Pep Guardiola so far this year and, no surprise, find themselves at the top here. James Milner has quietly been Liverpool’s best central midfielder, creating chances and winning the ball back to kickstart those Liverpool counter attacks. Uruguyan sensation Lucas Torreira has become a fan favorite at the Emirates for his work rate and feisty nature, and he enters in 6th here in the first ranking,and ranks second-highest (behind Lucas Digne) amongst new signings.

 

  1. David Silva
  2. Bernardo Silva
  3. James Milner
  4. Fernandinho
  5. Etienne Capoue
  6. Lucas Torreira
  7. Abdoulaye Doucouré
  8. Granit Xhaka
  9. Idrissa Gueye
  10. Mateo Kovacic

Attacking Midfielders/Wingers

Eden Hazard is dangerously close to falling into the strikers’ category as Maurizio Sarri has continued to play him as a false 9 in recent weeks, but for now he remains atop this list. Sané and Sterling are close behind though, with the German really starting to find his form in recent weeks after being left out during the early part of the year. Chelsea’s need for a true no. 9 is emphasized by Willian’s inclusion here in the top 5. Despite not having the output (in terms of goals and assists) of some of the other players, the Brazilian trails only Hazard in terms of key passes per 90. A true striker who would finish off the chances these two create could be just what Chelsea need to take that next step. Robert Snodgrass was a surprise inclusion, but the former Hull man has had his 2 goals and 3 assists all come this month and puts in the most number of accurate crosses per 90 minutes in the league.

  1. Eden Hazard
  2. Leroy Sané
  3. Raheem Sterling
  4. Ryan Fraser
  5. Willian
  6. Paul Pogba
  7. Christian Eriksen
  8. Son Heung-Min
  9. James Maddison
  10. Riyad Mahrez
  11. Gylfi Sigurdsson
  12. Robert Snodgrass
  13. Pedro
  14. Felipe Anderson
  15. Anthony Martial

Strikers

I found it quite surprising that Harry Kane and his league-high 14 goals only managed to rank 25th amongst all players, however I believe it is due to the high quality of strikers in the league today. The average striker in the league would produce 0.42 goals per 90, almost a goal every two games. As such, Kane’s high level of goal scoring has become marginally less valuable as there are more across the league who are also able to provide goals for their team.

  1. Mohammed Salah
  2. Sergio Aguero
  3. Marcus Rashford
  4. Harry Kane
  5. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
  6. Alexandre Lacazette
  7. Marko Arnautovic
  8. Callum Wilson
  9. Danny Ings
  10. Roberto Firmino

 

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Image courtesy of https://www.flickr.com/photos/fivetilnoon/35805452714

 

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